The Australian government is set to release its first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) in 2024, which aims to identify and prioritize climate risks to Australia’s environment, biodiversity, health, infrastructure, agriculture, and economy. However, the assessment’s approach has been criticized for being narrow and focused on individual risks rather than systemic climate risks. The government’s method involves asking stakeholders to identify risks relevant to them, which may lead to a partial and incoherent picture.
Experts argue that a comprehensive risk assessment should start with a big-picture understanding of existential and systemic climate risks at a global scale, considering factors such as tipping points, non-linear change, and cascading risks. The NCRA’s focus on adaptation and resilience responses, without discussing the need for stronger emission-reduction policies, has also been criticized.
The interim report released in 2023 was deemed poorly conceived and narrow in its approach. The final report’s prospects are not promising, given the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water’s lack of experience and depth in climate science. The Australian Academy of Science has recommended the establishment of an Australian Institute for Earth System Science to address the fundamental understanding of climate and provide a unifying agency for climate intelligence. The effectiveness of the NCRA will depend on its ability to provide a systemic and comprehensive assessment of climate risks, which is unlikely given the government’s track record of underplaying climate risks.